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TransUnion: National Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rate Experiences Largest Quarterly and Yearly Drops on Record

CHICAGO, IL--(Marketwired - May 8, 2013) - The national mortgage delinquency rate (the rate of borrowers 60 or more days past due) in Q1 2013 dropped 21% versus last year; and now stands at 4.56%. Since last quarter, the mortgage delinquency rate declined 12%. Both on a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis, this is the best improvement in mortgage delinquency since TransUnion began observing the data point in 1992. 

"We are pleased to report that the national mortgage delinquency rate experienced its first major decline since the advent of the housing crisis," said Tim Martin, group vice president of U.S. Housing in TransUnion's financial services business unit. "We certainly expected improvement this quarter, as the housing sector is in recovery, but the magnitude of the improvement was unexpected."

Every state and the District of Columbia experienced improvement in their mortgage delinquency rates from last year. While Arizona (-37.9%) and California (-36.6%) led the way once again in terms of mortgage delinquency improvement, other states also saw marked declines. These included Colorado (-28.5%), Michigan (-28.1%) and Minnesota (-25.7%). Florida, one of the hardest hit states by the housing crisis, also saw a 20.7% yearly decline.

At a more granular level, 91.0% of MSAs experienced a yearly decline in their mortgage delinquency rate. This percentage was an improvement over the previous quarter when 81.4% of MSAs had a yearly drop in their mortgage delinquency rate. California was represented by 15 of the 25 MSAs that experienced the largest yearly mortgage delinquency declines. Notable California MSAs include: San Jose (-44.3%), San Francisco (-39.2%), San Diego (-38.4%) and Sacramento (-36.6%).

"The housing sector as a whole has definitely been improving with prices up, negative equity down and rates staying low," Martin said. "That seems to have helped borrowers this quarter, some of whom have been delinquent for a rather long time, work their way out of the system at a faster pace."

TransUnion expects the mortgage delinquency rate to continue its downward trend in the second quarter of 2013, finishing near 4.5%. 

"There is no reason to believe the decline in mortgage delinquencies will not continue," said Martin. "All housing data point to further improvements in the delinquency rate, though as in the past few years, this also will hinge on how quickly older vintage loans clear through the system. We do not know if the first quarter was a blip, or if it's the beginning of a more rapid decline." 

This information is reported by TransUnion and is part of its ongoing series of quarterly analyses of credit-active U.S. consumers and how they are managing credit related to mortgages, credit cards and auto loans.

TransUnion's forecast is based on various economic assumptions, such as gross state product, consumer sentiment, unemployment rates, real personal income, and real estate values. The forecast would change if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy affecting recovery in the housing market or if home prices fall more than expected

Q1 2013 Mortgage Statistics - Delinquency Rates

Quarter over Quarter   Q4 2012     Q1 2013     Pct. Change  
  USA   5.19 %   4.56 %   (12.10 %)

Year over year   Q1 2012     Q1 2013     Pct. Change  
  USA   5.78 %   4.56 %   (21.11 %)

Highest Mortgage Delinquency States   Q1 2013  
  Florida   11.00 %
  Nevada   9.12 %
  New Jersey   6.93 %
  Delaware   6.27 %

Lowest Mortgage Delinquency States   Q1 2013  
  North Dakota   1.37 %
  South Dakota   1.63 %
  Nebraska   1.92 %
  Alaska   2.06 %

Top 3 Year-over-Year Increases   Q1 2012   Q1 2013   Pct. Change  
  *No states experienced increases              

Top 3 Year-over-Year Declines   Q1 2012     Q1 2013     Pct. Change  
  Arizona   6.86 %   4.26 %   (37.90 %)
  California   6.66 %   4.22 %   (36.64 %)
  Colorado   3.76 %   2.69 %   (28.46 %)

Q1 2013 Mortgage Statistics - Mortgage Debt Per Borrower

Quarter over Quarter   Q4 2012   Q1 2013   Pct. Change  
  USA   $ 186,785   $ 186,018   (0.41 %)

Year over Year   Q1 2012   Q1 2013   Pct. Change  
  USA   $ 188,196   $ 186,018   (1.16 %)

Highest Mortgage Debt States   Q1 2013
  District of Columbia   $ 376,121
  California   $ 320,419
  Hawaii   $ 313,404
  Maryland   $ 247,266

Lowest Mortgage Debt States   Q1 2013
  West Virginia   $ 103,054
  Mississippi   $ 110,219
  Oklahoma   $ 114,328
  Arkansas   $ 115,588

Top 3 Year-over-Year Increases   Q1 2012   Q1 2013   Pct. Change    
  North Dakota   $ 120,321   $ 125,630   4.41 %  
  New Jersey   $ 239,448   $ 245,310   2.45 %  
  New York   $ 216,663   $ 221,211   2.10 %  

Top 3 Year-over-Year Declines   Q1 2012   Q1 2013   Pct. Change  
  Nevada   $ 215,312   $ 204,663   (4.95 %)
  Arizona   $ 196,303   $ 188,690   (3.88 %)
  California   $ 331,133   $ 320,419   (3.24 %)

Supporting Resources/Links

TransUnion Trend Data Interactive U.S. Map

TransUnion 4Q12 Mortgage Statistics

TransUnion Mortgage Loan Modification Study

TransUnion Payment Hierarchy Study

TransUnion Life After Foreclosure Study

TransUnion on Twitter

TransUnion's Trend Data database

TransUnion's Trend Data is a one-of-a-kind database consisting of 27 million anonymous consumer records randomly sampled every quarter from TransUnion's national consumer credit database. Each record contains more than 200 credit variables that illustrate consumer credit usage and performance. Since 1992, TransUnion has been aggregating this information at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), state and national levels. For the purpose of this analysis, the term "credit card" refers to those issued by banks.

About TransUnion

As a global leader in credit and information management, TransUnion creates advantages for millions of people around the world by gathering, analyzing and delivering information. For businesses, TransUnion helps improve efficiency, manage risk, reduce costs and increase revenue by delivering comprehensive data and advanced analytics and decisioning. For consumers, TransUnion provides the tools, resources and education to help manage their credit health and achieve their financial goals. Through these and other efforts, TransUnion is working to build stronger economies worldwide. Founded in 1968 and headquartered in Chicago, TransUnion reaches businesses and consumers in 33 countries around the world on five continents. www.transunion.com/business